In December 2008, a report was published that gave us a glimpse of our future: Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon. Produced by the Climate Leadership Initiative of the University of Oregon, the National Center for Conservation Science and Policy, and the Pacific Northwest Research Station of the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, this report summarized the latest global climate change models, and applied them to the Rogue Valley.

This report is the first of four regional reports that, authors say, represent the first such comprehensive scaling down of global models to specific river basins in the United States.

The report is intended to provide a starting point for climate preparation efforts in the Rogue Basin. We hope that, over time, all levels of government, the private sector, and households will utilize the information and recommendations as a platform to expand their knowledge and develop continuously improving climate preparation strategies and policies.

The report focuses on conditions projected for 2040 and 2080.

Here is a summary from the report of some of the predicted changes we face:

Temperature

• Annual average temperatures will increase by 1-3° F by 2040 and by 4-8° F by 2080
• Summer temperatures may increase dramatically, averaging 7 to 15° F warmer by 2080
• Winter temperatures may average an increase of 3 to 8° by 2080

Precipitation and Snowpack

• Total precipitation may remain roughly similar to historical levels, but…
• Rising temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain, rather than snow
• Snow accumulation will decline by 25-75% by 2040, and may virtually disappear by 2080

Fires and Floods

• More severe storm events, higher runoff events, and increased flooding are likely
• Both wet and dry cycles are likely to last longer and be more extreme
• Drastically increased wildfire is predicted for our region by most of the climate models

Vegetation Patterns

• Temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns will lead to changes in vegetation, with wildfire and disease acting as catalysts
• More of the basin will have growing conditions favorable for oaks, maples, ash, and other deciduous trees as well as for mixed pines and hardwoods

The Report

Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon

• Executive Summary and Report Introduction
• Complete Report (Note: due to size this may take time to download.)